The Prediction Game
If you've already taken our risk intelligence test, you'll know that it consists of fifty statements about science, history, geography, and so on. Your task is to say how likely you think it is that each of these statements is true. We calculate your risk intelligence quotient (RQ) on the basis of your estimates.
The prediction game challenges you to apply your risk intelligence to a slightly different task. The basic idea is the same; we provide you with a bunch of statements, and your task is to say how likely you think it is that each one is true. The difference is that these statements refer not to known facts, but to future events. Unlike the first test, nobody knows whether these statements are true or false yet. For most of them, we won't know until the end of the year 2010.
For example, how likely do you think it is that this year will be the hottest on record? If you think this is very unlikely you might select the 10% category. If you think it is quite likely, but not very likely, you might put the chances at 60% or 70%. Selecting the 50% category would mean that you had no idea how likely it is.
Before you can access the prediction game, you will have to create a user account. Don't worry, it's free and will only take one minute! Also, if you haven't already taken our risk intelligence test, you'll have to do that first before you can play the prediction game. If you have already taken the test, then you won't have to take it again, but can go straight to the prediction game. It's free to register, and there are no hidden catches. We set up Projection Point purely for academic research and not for profit. To see our full terms of service, click here.